Oil Elliott Wave Chart

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OIL 4 Hours Chart

WTIC and Copper Elliott Wave Count

Last update showed how these two commodities are entering the 5th wave impulse. Copper prices have risen strongly and are now at fresh highs for 2009. The 5th wave of the wave '1' of new impulse is now in progress. Strong confluence resistance rests at levels of 242 and then 250 - 264 range. The triangle formation completion has invalidated the previous alternate count and emphasized the base count. See the following graph

Crude oil entered the 5th wave of wave 'C' of final corrective wave 4. The wave 3 of 5 is nearing completion and crude oil might take a breather before tracing out wave 4 and 5. Please see previous post for complete update. Following is the short term graph -




There is strong confluence resistance at $68 - $72 range. Look for rally to exhaust at these levels. Further resistance is at $76 if these levels do not hold.

Elliott wave Analysis - Crude oil nearing top

Taking previous view on crude oil forward it seems crude oil is now in a process of toping out. Yesterday’s price action is suggestive of price entering 3 of 5 of C.

Once this final 5 wave upmove exhausts price would reverse.

Current wave count suggest that price may top at around $68 - $70 range before beginning their down move to previous lows of $33 and further to new lows.

The complete down wave 3 was from 128.6 to 32.4. We look for fourth wave to retrace 38.2% of this wave which is at about $70. The corrective ABC calls for C = 1.618 X A which is at $62.5 and C = 2.0 X A is at $70.



Lower degree fourth wave of an extended third ended at $71.6.

There is a strong confluence resistance at $68 - $72 price levels.

On a one hour graph the rally looks impulsive. Look for sign of exhaustion after price jumps above $65.

Crude oil and Copper Wave Count

Crude oil and copper has given an impressive rally in the past few months. Copper prices bottomed out before equity markets started the current uptrend and crude oil followed with a lag.

The current market picture in copper is impressive as elliott wave structure saw termination of the bear trend at the bottom. Now copper is in the process of forming the first impulse of the new bull market. The following graph will make it clear.

The alternate count shown above will have a very high probability if copper trades below 200 for a few days. Termination of wave 1 may occur at 245-250 range if the triangle completes.

Crude oil prices have rebounded sharply. As I had mentioned in the last post here that crude oil is still in the fourth wave of the wave 'A' correction, it has taken an expected amount of time to reach the current price levels. The current price picture is now calling for termination of the current uptrend in few weeks. Take a look at this graph. For previous posts see this link



Crude oil rally looks like nearing exhaustion. On hourly graphs we have entered the wave 5 of 5 of C. Look for reversal pattern in days to come, retracements can be very deep.

Crude Oil Wave Count

Since crude oil gave a breakdown below the expected tip of primary wave 1 the wave structure has changed dramatically. Long term price damage to crude oil prices is extensive and can lead lower prices over the next few years. Take a look at the current 'altered' wave count for crude oil -




We are now in the first leg down for crude oil. The current move is the wave 'A' of the ABC decline. The lower degree wave 4 ended at level of $25. So it is possible that crude oil prices might decline to this levels before the next bull run emerges. The short term for oil price is looking much more promising. In the wave 'A' we have already formed the wave 3 low and are possibly in wave 4. Take a look -



In the very short term crude oil may reach the expected target of $55 if it is able to cross $46 on a daily close. $38 should serve as a strong support.

For previous posts and analysis see this link - http://www.sahilkaps.blogspot.com/