Saturday, May 30, 2009
Friday, May 29, 2009
Thursday, May 28, 2009
Elliott wave Analysis - Crude oil nearing top
Taking previous view on crude oil forward it seems crude oil is now in a process of toping out. Yesterday’s price action is suggestive of price entering 3 of 5 of C.
Once this final 5 wave upmove exhausts price would reverse.
Current wave count suggest that price may top at around $68 - $70 range before beginning their down move to previous lows of $33 and further to new lows.
Once this final 5 wave upmove exhausts price would reverse.
Current wave count suggest that price may top at around $68 - $70 range before beginning their down move to previous lows of $33 and further to new lows.
The complete down wave 3 was from 128.6 to 32.4. We look for fourth wave to retrace 38.2% of this wave which is at about $70. The corrective ABC calls for C = 1.618 X A which is at $62.5 and C = 2.0 X A is at $70.
Lower degree fourth wave of an extended third ended at $71.6.
There is a strong confluence resistance at $68 - $72 price levels.
On a one hour graph the rally looks impulsive. Look for sign of exhaustion after price jumps above $65.
Wednesday, May 27, 2009
USD/AUD long term trend
Australian dollar made a significant H&S pattern on its long term graph against the USD. However this pattern failed and prices fell below the neckline which is at 0.80 currently.
Previous support has now turned to resistance.
Monthly 25 Years Graph
The bull market in AUD was broken decisively in July last year. Since then AUD got cut into half against the USD. This rebound can be seen as a bear market rally which has retraced 50% of the complete fall.
Weekly 10 Years
A significant turn can occur at the current price range of 0.80 – 0.85.
Incidentally 0.85 is also the target prices by measured move analysis of short term double
bottom formed in USDAUD on a daily graph. RSI is diverging and current market action is now looking topish. If prices reverse from these levels we should look to go short on AUD against the USD for target of previous low of 0.60 and further.
Daily 2 years
Previous support has now turned to resistance.
Monthly 25 Years Graph
The bull market in AUD was broken decisively in July last year. Since then AUD got cut into half against the USD. This rebound can be seen as a bear market rally which has retraced 50% of the complete fall.
Weekly 10 Years
A significant turn can occur at the current price range of 0.80 – 0.85.
Incidentally 0.85 is also the target prices by measured move analysis of short term double
bottom formed in USDAUD on a daily graph. RSI is diverging and current market action is now looking topish. If prices reverse from these levels we should look to go short on AUD against the USD for target of previous low of 0.60 and further.Daily 2 years
Tuesday, May 26, 2009
Crude oil and Copper Wave Count
Crude oil and copper has given an impressive rally in the past few months. Copper prices bottomed out before equity markets started the current uptrend and crude oil followed with a lag.
The current market picture in copper is impressive as elliott wave structure saw termination of the bear trend at the bottom. Now copper is in the process of forming the first impulse of the new bull market. The following graph will make it clear.
The current market picture in copper is impressive as elliott wave structure saw termination of the bear trend at the bottom. Now copper is in the process of forming the first impulse of the new bull market. The following graph will make it clear.
The alternate count shown above will have a very high probability if copper trades below 200 for a few days. Termination of wave 1 may occur at 245-250 range if the triangle completes.
Crude oil prices have rebounded sharply. As I had mentioned in the last post here that crude oil is still in the fourth wave of the wave 'A' correction, it has taken an expected amount of time to reach the current price levels. The current price picture is now calling for termination of the current uptrend in few weeks. Take a look at this graph. For previous posts see this link
Crude oil rally looks like nearing exhaustion. On hourly graphs we have entered the wave 5 of 5 of C. Look for reversal pattern in days to come, retracements can be very deep.
Nzd/Jpy 4 Hours
My Nzd/Jpy chart. Looks like my short is gonna be a good trade. 46pips in profit right now.
Monday, May 25, 2009
USD/CHF 4 Hours Chart
Currently this is my preferred count for USD / CHF pair. I'm expecting it to go further down until 1.05 range in next few days or weeks.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
USD/SGD 4 Hours Chart
Hi all,
Here is my USD/SGD dollars. Still it getting lower level for wave (C). If it reach near the end of wave C, will be a good R/R radio to go LONG..
waiting..
Here is my USD/SGD dollars. Still it getting lower level for wave (C). If it reach near the end of wave C, will be a good R/R radio to go LONG..
waiting..
Friday, May 22, 2009
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
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